Low-volume doji and US stock pullback: A-share independent rally and domestic computing power opportunity
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Low-Volume Doji and US Stock Pullback: The Golden Window for A-Share Independent Rally and Domestic Computing Power
Introduction: When "Low Volume" Meets Overseas Disturbance
Yesterday, the A-share market formed a long-unseen low-volume doji star. This kind of extremely shrinking trading activity last appeared on April 7. On the floor, the sentiment of selling exhaustion and general reluctance to sell was evident. However, on the same night when A-shares showed a "no selling pressure" state, the US market experienced a significant pullback. When the two key signals of "low volume" and "overseas disturbance" overlap, where will market risk appetite go? This article takes the perspective of the divergence between domestic and foreign markets, deeply analyzes the current A-share investment themes, and focuses on the golden development window facing the domestic computing power sector.
Deep Signals Behind Low Volume: A-Share "Holding" Pattern Confirmed
In yesterday's session, the combined turnover of the two markets hit a new low for the stage. The most common interpretation of this phenomenon is "pre-holiday effect" or "insufficient bullish enthusiasm." However, a more precise interpretation is: the willingness to sell on the floor has dropped to a freezing point, with funds generally entering a holding state.
Why "holding" rather than "waiting and seeing"? From a technical perspective, low volume usually means bulls and bears have reached a fragile balance here. But combined with the current macroeconomic environment and policy expectations, we can find that the power of institutions actively fleeing is very limited. Many funds that have positioned for dips are not eager to cash in profits; instead, it is off-market funds waiting for clearer right-side signals.
This shift in the "low volume" pattern often indicates that the market is accumulating energy for a reversal. When stock prices fall and no one sells, the market naturally finds it hard to break below support; and when a breeze stirs, even a small amount of buying can easily lift the index. Therefore, on the dimension of "low volume," A-shares already have a certain resilient foundation.
Fragmented Market Pattern: Domestic and External Needs Must Be Viewed Separately
If we only look at A-shares, the conclusion might be "steady and waiting for an uptick." But the collective pullback in US stocks overnight, especially the weakness of tech giants, has brought new interference to market sentiment. Therefore, the primary task is to completely separate the domestic and foreign markets.
Why can A-shares maintain independence amid US volatility? The core reason lies in the completely different driving logics of the two markets at present. The core contradiction of A-shares currently lies in the slope of domestic economic recovery and the pace of industrial policy implementation, while the US market is troubled by global liquidity expectations (especially Fed rate expectations) and slowing growth of tech giants' earnings.
Specifically, previously Google's capital expenditure exceeded expectations and earnings reports beat expectations but operating cash flow began to turn negative — this series of information together led to A-shares' narrow range yesterday. The market interpreted this well: US tech giants are facing the dilemma of "revenue growth without profit growth" or even "revenue growth without cash growth." This concern directly transmitted to the US stock market, triggering an adjustment in the Nasdaq index.
Overseas Computing Power Warning: Why It Is Not Our Main Theme?
Regarding the widespread cash flow pressure faced by overseas tech giants, we must squarely acknowledge its direct impact on the computing power sector. When giant capital expenditure can no longer sustain high growth, the overseas computing power supply chain (especially servers, optical modules, chip design links reliant on North American big-name orders) will inevitably face a more severe test.
Based on this, a clear strategy emerges: Overseas computing power-related directions should not become our core operational theme. For these assets, we only recommend a small-proportion watch as a "satellite allocation." The core position resources should be steadfastly placed in the domestic computing power sector.
Many investors may ask: Will domestic computing power be impacted by this wave of overseas volatility? The answer is almost certainly no. The short-term capital investment constraints of overseas tech giants are not a negative for domestic computing power; on the contrary, it is a golden window for accelerated catch-up.
Golden Window for Domestic Computing Power: Opportunity Amid Sentiment Disturbance
Why is there "almost no material impact"? We can understand from two dimensions:
- Transient Sentiment Disturbance: The decline in overseas tech stocks may bring a brief negative sentiment impact on the A-share AI sector at the open, causing core targets to open slightly lower. But such sentiment disturbance usually lasts only one trading day and does not change the sector's own trend.
- Independence of Sector Logic: The core driver of domestic computing power is not orders from overseas giants, but strong domestic policy support and downstream demand. Since last year, leading domestic internet companies and telecom operators have been continuously increasing capital expenditure in the computing power field. In 2025, domestic computing power has officially entered the volume delivery stage, with many chip manufacturers mass-purchasing and deploying domestic computing power chips. On the industry level, the situation of thriving supply and demand has become reality.
Therefore, the fluctuation in overseas computing power is actually providing another "golden pit" low-absorption opportunity for domestic computing power.
Industry Chain Transmission Cycle: The Long Logic from Upstream to Midstream and Downstream Computing Power
After clarifying the main theme of domestic computing power, another undeniable reality is the operating pattern within the industry chain. For a long time, the market has been keen on discussing the explosion of "computing power software" and "AI applications," but I must emphasize again a medium-term yet crucial core logic: The transmission of computing power from upstream infrastructure to midstream and downstream applications is an extremely lengthy process.
We should not be misled by some short-term speculative expectations. Don't immediately ask why software and application sectors haven't surged right after hearing the logic of upstream computing power demand explosion. The industrial logic behind this is clear:
- Current Stage: The focus of domestic computing power is still on data center construction and hardware procurement. Currently, many computing centers have not even fully entered operation, let alone achieved large-scale computing power scheduling and commercial applications.
- Medium-Term Outlook: Only when the underlying computing power base (infrastructure construction) enters the large-scale operational stage can it provide stable computing power support for upper-layer large model training and industry application development. This process takes at least one to two years.
- Downstream Realization: Only after computing power costs significantly decline and supply becomes abundant will we see batch revenue realization of To C and To B applications.
Therefore, this is a multi-year medium-term investment logic. Those who agree with this logic can treat it as the underlying reference for long-term operations over the next two to three years; those who disagree may also not mind, as market investing is about everyone's own choice. But we must respect the objective laws of industrial development and avoid holding excessive expectations for midstream and downstream directions at the wrong time point.
Conclusion: Embrace Independence, Wait for Blossom
In summary, the current A-share market is in a switching window of "strong domestic, weak overseas." Low volume and contraction mean extremely low systemic selling risk, and short-term adjustments stem more from external sentiment disturbances. These external unstable factors precisely provide a rare independent market soil for the development of domestic computing power.
For investors, the strategy is very clear:
- Reduce reliance on overseas computing power, only maintain a small-scale tracking.
- Firmly position in domestic computing power, use the decline caused by short-term passive sentiment to increase positions.
- Maintain patience, respect the time cycle of computing power industry transmission from upstream to midstream and downstream, and do not rush for quick success.
In the current market, only those who can see through the pattern divergence and firmly grasp the major industrial direction will enjoy the fruits when the real market rally begins.
Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, please invest cautiously.