Non-Manufacturing PMI Exceeds Expectations, US Three Major Indices Rally, Tech and New Energy Lead

On August 5 (Wednesday), US stock market's three major indices all rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both closing near intraday highs. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.63% to 44,876.35 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.81% to 6,123.44 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.05% to 19,856.22 points. Market sentiment clearly improved, with trading volume increasing by more than 5% from the previous day, showing active buying power.

Data Boost: Services Expansion Exceeds Expectations

The direct catalyst for this rally was the July non-manufacturing PMI released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The data showed that the index rose sharply from 48.8 to 52.3, not only returning above the boom-bust line but also far exceeding the market expectation of 50.8. As an important component of the US economy, the strong expansion of services significantly alleviated recent market concerns about an economic sharp slowdown. After the data was released, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.12%, and financial sector and cyclical stocks strengthened simultaneously, providing solid support for the market.

Sector Highlights: Tech and New Energy Resonance

In terms of sector performance, the information technology sector led the S&P 500 with a 1.2% gain. Large tech stocks generally rose, with Apple up 2.3% after announcing its autumn product launch event in September; NVIDIA continued its strong performance, rising 1.8%, hitting a new intraday high; Microsoft rose 1.2%. The semiconductor sector was broadly positive, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 1.6%, and AMD, Broadcom and other individual stocks rising more than 2%. In addition, the new energy sector also performed impressively: Tesla rose 3.2% due to Q2 deliveries exceeding expectations, with several investment banks raising their target prices; solar stocks rebounded collectively, with First Solar soaring 5.4%, Enphase Energy rising 4.2%, and energy storage system provider Fluence Energy rising 3.7%.

Policy Benefits, Chinese Concept Stocks Surge Collectively

In Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.5%. Alibaba rose 3.1%, Pinduoduo rose 2.8%, JD.com rose 2.2%, and Baidu rose 1.9%. On the news front, China's State Council issued a new policy document supporting the development of the platform economy, providing support from tax reduction and fee reduction, data circulation, cross-border business and other dimensions, significantly boosting market confidence in Chinese tech companies. At the same time, Southeast Asian capital continued to flow into the US stock market, with safe-haven demand and dollar asset allocation willingness strengthening, further boosting the trading activity of Chinese concept stocks.

Market View: Recession Concerns Alleviated, but Inflation Shadow Remains

Many market strategists said that the rebound in services PMI effectively reduced the risk of the US economy experiencing a "hard landing," but the resilience of inflation cannot be ignored. The CME FedWatch tool shows that interest rate futures markets expect a 72.5% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and a 27.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Investors are now turning their attention to the July non-farm employment report to be released this Friday, which will be the key basis for judging labor market conditions and the Fed's policy path.

Capital Flows: ETFs Continue to Attract Money, Tech and Energy Favored

According to data from third-party capital monitoring institutions, US stock ETFs have received approximately $12.8 billion in net inflows in the past 5 trading days, with tech industry ETFs receiving $4.5 billion in net inflows and energy industry ETFs receiving $2.2 billion in net inflows, reflecting investors' dual preference for growth and inflation-hedging sectors. Against the background of the US dollar index maintaining above 104, global capital will still regard US stocks as an important asset allocation destination.

Technical Analysis and Outlook

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index found strong support around 6100 points, with the daily MACD forming a golden cross, showing short-term momentum bias. However, the index has approached historical highs, and if non-farm data is below expectations, the market may face profit-taking. Institutions generally suggest that investors focus on tech leaders and new energy industry chains with strong profit certainty, while maintaining position flexibility to cope with potential volatility.

Overall, on August 5, US stocks continued their upward momentum driven by better-than-expected economic data, with market risk appetite warming up, but the long-term game between valuations and inflation continues. Against the background of ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty, US stocks face both structural opportunities and volatility risks, and investors need to remain rational and make careful allocations.